Players to Remember for Draft Day

By David Mast

Here are some names to remember on draft day:

1. Ryan Madson - vulture wins baby
2. So Taguchi - could do a lot worse in the end-game than 4-35-8-.290
3. Jonny Gomes - He's about ripe to get it together
4. David Dejesus - some have soured on him, but he provides a little everywhere
5. Matt Murton - Now that he's forgotten by all...
6. Casey Kotchman - It's his time
7. Elijah Dukes - Don't put it past him to explode either (on the scene, or, on the field, or off the field, for that matter.
8. Aaron Miles (see So Taguchi at 2B)
9. Brad Hawpe - Overshadowed by Mr. All-Everything in the Rockies OF

And now, my "I think Jason Kendall is the greatest power hitter ever" award goes to ... Mark Kotsay, who may not be able hit the ball from home plate, pick the ball up from where it lands, hit it again and clear the CF fence. In is prime he was an empty fantasy league hitter. Now that he runs like Grandma Moses, swings like Moses Malone and can't hit a double to save his life, he is enough to make you proclaim, "Holy Moses, is this guy still in the Majors?"

LABR Draft completed

One of the most useful tools in determining player dollar values going into a draft is to heed the advice of the professionals.

There are three renouned fantasy baseball leagues that I pay attention to:

LABR - The AL draft

LABR - The NL draft

Tout Wars - AL, NL and Mixed drafts

LABR stands for the League of Alternative Baseball Reality and has been playing since 1994. Tout Wars has been playing since 1998. Both leagues feature prominent "fantasy baseball professionals" that work for publications including ESPN, CNNSI, USAToday, CBS Sportsline, Roto Times, RotoWorld and so on and so forth. These are the guys that know what they're doing.

The reason I like monitoring these leagues is because they use an auction-style draft. Auctions are lightyears better than the standard internet snake-drafts. I love 'em, love 'em, love 'em. I pay close attention to what these guys bid for players and use their bids as guidelines for my own draft. Granted, it's not quite perfect since they use a 5x5 scoring method and my longtime league is a 4x4. And I participate in a keeper league so the number of quality players in the pool is different than starting-from-scratch drafts. But it's a good guideline.

I've been scouring the internet to find the results of these drafts without much luck. LABR's draft date and/or results are nowhere to be found. So I wrote to Steve Gardner at USAToday and found out some information:

"We just had the LABR draft this past weekend," says Gardner. The results will be published in the March 19 Fantasy Extra edition of Sports Weekly. Hopefully it will also be posted on USAToday's fantasy baseball page. Thanks to Steve for the quick reply to my question.

It looks like Tout Wars will be drafting March 21-22 according to this page. If you're in NYC, you're welcome to attend.

Just a Good Ol' Boy

Just a good ol' boy
Never meanin' no harm
He couldn't hit the ball
Lost his job to Asdrubal
Got sent down to the farm

Ah, I loved the Dukes of Hazzard. The most dependable character on the show was Uncle Jesse. Everybody loved the old man. Uncle Jesse didn't have any kids of his own, but if he did they probably would have been unfairly compared to their father.

The same goes for a current son-of-a-Jesse. Young Josh Barfield started his career with the Padres and had a great first season. In his 2006 rookie campaign, Barfield produced an excellent statline of .280-13-58-21. This confirmed his strong minor league numbers which averaged around .300-16-100-20 over four seasons. Going into 2007, roto owners were high on Barfield. But all they got was Barf.

Josh struggled from the start and completed the season with a .243-3-50-14 statline, losing his job to no-hit, no-run Asdrubal Cabrera. It was the slick fielding Ruby who provided the spark that Barfield didn't have.

Is it the end of the line for Jesse's kid? No way. He's only 25 and has four strong minor league seasons and two major league seasons under his belt. The Indians were forced to give up early on Brandon Phillips so I think they will give Barfield every opportunity to rebound. We've all heard the term Sophomore Slump. That's because it happens to a lot of young players. This isn't a new phenomenon.

Take a chance on Barfield in deeper leagues. His low dollar value shouldn't put your team's hopes in Hazzard.

An Argument for Good Catchers

I have always been a strong advocate of fielding strong catchers. Many teams will wait until the end of the draft for their $1 catchers. Not me. When I have money to spend, I will spend it on my backstop.

When you spend a buck on a catcher, what do you expect to get? A dozen homers and a .270 average? Think again. You're more likely to get .220-5-35-0. You might be saving $10 by buying a cheap catcher instead of an average one but your entire team will suffer.

I think the numbers speak for themselves.

There were 46 players in our 20-team mixed keeper league drafted last season for $4 or less. Here are the average numbers posted, by position, of those players with 100 or more at-bats:

All Players .271-12-49-4 (46 players)
Catchers .245-9-42-1 (7 players)
MI .291-11-56-5 (11 players)
CO/DH .250-15-56-2 (9 players)
Outfield .275-11-44-6 (19 players)

So would you rather have a $1 middle infielder or a $1 catcher? Chances are, if you spend money on a decent catcher and go cheap on the 2B, you will have better combined stats from those two players. Conversely, if you get your $1 catcher and an average MI, you may as well start planning for next season.

The Best Bargains by Postion
C: Mike Napoli .247-10-34-5 (Yes, that's the best one. Lousy.)
MI: Aaron Hill .291-17-78-4 (Hit 15 more HRs than expected)
CO: Kevin Millar .254-17-63-1 (Slim pickin's among cheap COs)
OF: Ryan Church .27215-70-3 (Useful unknown that didn't hurt you)

And the Worst Sub-$5 players
C: Brian Schneider .235-6-54-0 (Common stats for cheap catchers)
MI: Some Valentin .241-3-18-2 (I always get all Valentins mixed up)
CO: Scott Thorman .216-11-36-1 (When benched, he hits 3 HRs)
OF: Trot Nixon .251-3-31-0 (Emptiest 300ab OF stat line ever)

I'll even go a step further. Consider drafting a THIRD catcher this season. Of all players that have added trade value due to scarcity during the season, it is closers and catchers. If you have a stud $20 catcher at your UT spot, you have great trade bait in July when your opponent has A.J. Pierzinski out for the season. Last season, I made the mistake of bypassing Pudge at $13 and instead drafted Michael Barrett at $12. If I had drafted both, I could have kept Pudge, traded Barrett and picked up a new UT.

And as a final argument, do you really want Gerald Laird on your fantasy team?

Keeper Leagues are like one long poker game

I love getting messages from Dave that are of the long-winded variety. In our 20 team league, he is the superpower. If our league is the Gabe Paul Memorial League, then we play at Steamin' Mastadon Park.

In this observation, Dave hits on several interesting topics, including the savviness of other owners, when it's better not to replace an injured player and the plethra of information available on the web.

There's something to learn from a guy who has dominated in a competitive keeper league for nearly 20 years.

...I can survive 'cause I'm a wiley vetran of 19 years! Notto brag, but more of an observation: In those 19 years, I've won 10 titles. Why? Is it because I know more than the other guys? I don't think so. I think it is because of three things:

1. Knowing when and when not to pull the trigger on deals.
2. Guys like me because they know I'm not going to try to screw them, so they are willing to deal with me, plus when they like you, they are more apt to help you than some schmuck who you're battling who has a stick up his rear and a massive ego.
3. Not overdealing. That little ditty came from you (Thank you Trent Durrington) and I have been the recipient of it ever since. That may have been one of the most useful tidbits of info I have ever received in this game. We all know the talent, and what guys are worth, and who the hot you rookies are. That's easy. Not picking up crap when your 2b goes down for two weeks is tough to do. I've laid off picking up the TDs for a couple weeks, and lived with no stats. That was a major plus.
4. Oh, and as a bonus reason: ABs. The more you have (in general) coming out of the draft, the better you do. Stands to reason.
5. I'll add another one, just for fun. This idea that you should allocate the mass majority of your dollars to hitting — I don't buy it. You have to have an anchor.

The big dogs say you can luck into pitching. I disagree. I think you can smart your way into saves by doing your homework and buying set-up guys with potential (Brian Miller is good at that). But SPs? You pick up guys with marginal talent and they can kill you, mainly because there's only 10 pitchers on your staff.

I would rather invest in a middle reliever with solid stats, who throws 80 innings, gets you five wins and no saves (Aaron Heilman, Dan Wheeler, etc) than go after the likes of Bret Tomko and 12 win guys with monstrous whips – a trap some owners fall into every year, which is why they are constantly high in wins, low in whip/era).

We live in a time when we all know the score when it comes to talent. You couldn't sneak a stud single-A guy thru the draft without having his price tag jacked up to $7 - ala Brandon Wood. Information is everywhere on the Internet. It's like asking a guy to go out into the yard to see if he can find a blade of grass. It's easy. This game has become more like poker, where you have to know and undestand your competitors, know their tendancies, and most important, know what your strengths and weaknesses are.

Internet sites like Rotoworld and Krukster make info easy. Being able to fashion a draft strategy based on a keeper league is the one aspect of this game that gets overlooked by every magazine and Internet site out there today. Which is odd, since the majority of leagues are keeper leagues.

All of these mags write from the standpoint that they are connecting with mental fantasy midgets. They aren't aiming their info toward the smart guys in the game. It's the same reason golf courses make their courses easy for studs — so hacks can feel good about themselves and come back for more.

I use to chuckle at our old site, that had that trade evaluator on it. One owner used to bow down to that thing — which sadly didn't take into account your team needs, the fact that you had to plug someone else into your lineup in a 3-for-2 deal, how quickly you could pass guys in front of you in certain categories and an assortment of other items. It looked purely at the numbers involved. It's almost as if today''s fantasy owners rely so heavily on gadgets they can't make a decision for themselves.

Maybe that's my biggest advantage: I think I know more than the magazine writers because they think from the standpoint of a new league, and trying to reach out to morons.

Well said, Dave. I need to write an article dedicated to the notoriety of the Trent Durrington phenomenon.

But here's to your dethroning in 2008.

Dave's Long Lost Rant

By Dave Mast

I just spent the past 15 minutes typing you a response which magically disappeared. Trust me, it was a great one. One that I'll never be able to top.

It mentioned Thad Bosley, midgets breakdancing on dugout roofs, Cleveland Cheerleaders called the Girls Named Sioux, Mark Lemongello, Barry Bonds 113th home run ball, the man who went to bat with a toothpick, a thesis on what angle denotes the breaking point sending a good bunt into a great bunt, the vendor who has sold the most stadium dogs in Astros history, Peter Gabriel's failed attempt to become a Major League shortstop, A-Rod misinterpreting his contract and signing with the Dodgers for $10 for 250,000,000 years, Enos Cabell, a ponderance as to why superstitious major leaguers don't wear eye black for 16 straight days like they do underwear or socks, Rocko Scotty's attempt to remake the entire Yellow Submarine album, Gerlad Williams, famous triple plays which were turned 7-9-2-4-5, why surfers would make good managers, Tom Treblehorn's new book "One Brewed over the Cuckoo's Nest," the infamous Jeff D'Amico vs. John D'Aquisto debate, why the ghost of Frank Howard couldn't hit .220 in today's game, The day President Taft balked when throwing out the first pitch, Ned Yost, Larry Bowa's new book "The Boy Who Cried Randy Wolf," the fact that I am 100 percent sure that I found a small chunk of tar from George Brett's infamous tar-bat HR game in my driveway, Dave Chalk, 24 reasons why the Texas Rangers deserve to finish first in 2010, I have positive proof that John Denny was the second shooter in Dallas, I found an old record called "Bill Wegman Sings All Your Favorite Christmas hits," Rodney McCrae, an essay on why spider monkeys can't play baseball, a written affidavit of a man who truly believes he could have been Greg Swindell in another dimension of time and space, why the experiment to play games at 3 a.m. without lights failed, Larry Foote, the infamous boxing match between Mickey Lolich and a ball girl, Freddie Patek's top 10 tirades, a list of every six game hitting streak in MLB history, Jeff Juden, six tips to make anyone a more successful behind the plate" taunter, howto pick out the best cap in the souvenir stand, the real reason Manny Mota did not play in his seventh decade, the newest sports talk show, "Late At Night with Early Wynn," and finally, how I plan on sending Cooperstown a Coco Crisp spring training ball with a "%@" on it — against his wishes, of course.

Alas, all of that was lost when my message evaporated. You will, forever, not be the same having missed such an eclectic, stunning assortment of baseball truths, that will now and forever be hidden from baseball lore everywhere.